Swiss Re study: GLP-1 drugs could cut U.S. mortality by staggering 6.4% by 2045
The continued use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs could cut mortality rates by up to 6.4% by 2045, according to new research spearheaded by Swiss Re.
Titled “The future of metabolic health and weight loss drugs,” and released on Wednesday, the study considers the long-term ramifications of the explosive growth of GLP-1s. Among U.S. adults, usage of GLP-1 drugs for weight control and type-2 diabetes treatment rose to more than 4% in 2024, a fivefold increase in five years, according to FAIR Health data.
The market size for GLP-1s is expected to grow at about 26% annually through 2033, Grand View Research estimated. It is large enough to change the mortality projections that are crucial to life insurance and annuity pricing.
Under optimistic scenarios, Swiss Re projects that GLP-1 medications could reduce all-cause mortality in the United States by as much as 6.4% by 2045. In the United Kingdom, the research suggests a reduction of over 5% is possible.
“GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication,” said Paul Murray, Swiss Re’s CEO, Life & Health Reinsurance, in a news release. “As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives.”
A coordinated effort
The U.S. has the developed world’s highest obesity rate, at over 40% of the adult population. While in the U.K., around 30% of adults are obese.
Neil Sprackling, CEO of Swiss Re’s U.S. life and health division, sat for an interview with InsuranceNewsNet during the LIMRA 2025 Annual Conference last week. He called the take up of GLP-1s “a good thing for the industry and a good thing for society.”
Mortality was a topic of a conference session as the industry grapples with continued elevated numbers in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We’ve got a really worrying set of trends, not just in the United States, but in a lot of developed countries,” Sprackling explained. “But here [in the U.S.] you’ve got somewhere in the range of 40-plus percent of the people that are obese.”
Rising obesity is one factor that has stalled progress in life expectancy across developed markets. In high-income countries, obesity is now linked to seven of the 10 leading causes of death, including ischemic heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and many cancers. By improving baseline risk factors, GLP-1 drugs may contribute to mortality improvements over time, saving millions from premature death.
‘Doesn’t solve the obesity issues’
Despite the potential of GLP-1s to help millions of people better control their weight, Sprackling warns that “it’s not a panacea.”
The report’s optimistic scenario depends on a broad uptake of GLP-1 therapies and people adhering to treatment. Most importantly, it will require people to implement lifestyle changes that support long-term health improvements, the report concluded.
Without these changes, studies have shown that weight regain and rebound effects are common, with full weight regain possible within a year after patients discontinue these drugs.
“This doesn’t solve the obesity issues around the world,” Sprackling said. “It provides a solution as part of a wider set of changes that we need to see. And that change I’m talking about is behavioral change, and that’s probably the hardest thing for human society to embrace.”
Cautious outcomes presented
Swiss Re’s modelling also presents more cautious outcomes. In a pessimistic scenario, there is limited uptake in the population, high discontinuation rates, especially due to side effects, and widespread weight regain after treatment finishes.
Under these conditions, Swiss Re sees much more limited improvements, with US cumulative mortality reductions of just 2.3%, and 1.8% for the UK by 2045.
“GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends,” added Natalie Kelly, head of life and health global underwriting, claims and R&D at Swiss Re, in the release. “The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.”
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